Beaches—East York and Scarborough Southwest
The gap is
inside the riding
Between the highest and lowest advance zone in Beaches—East York there are 19.8 percentage points when election-day and advance votes are divided by registered electors. The range sits inside one riding counted under one election.
- Riding turnout, 2025
- 67.3%
- Highest zone to lowest
- 19.8 pp
- Electors on the list
- 81,332
- Shifts to knock every door
- 1,777
Fifteen advance zones
Sorted honestly,
lowest first
Advance zones, not polling divisions, are the stable unit here: a by-election can renumber polling divisions, and zones survive. Zone 608 is the lowest observed value and zone 609 is the highest; every zone remains visible below.
Receipt
Total turnout, election day plus advance, for the 15 advance zones of federal district 35007. The riding as a whole came in at 67.3% on 81,332 electors and 54,753 votes cast.
- Source
- Elections Canada, 45th general election
- Published by
- Elections Canada
- Period
- 28 April 2025
- Retrieved
- 15 August 2026
Advance zones, not polling divisions, are the stable grain. A by-election can renumber polling divisions; zones survive. Merged and void polls carry notes, and receiver polls read slightly high.
How people voted, not who for
Where advance voting
did the work
Across these zones, advance votes make up roughly one-third to just over one-half of election-day-plus-advance votes. The extract shows that difference; it does not say whether hours, mobility, campaign activity, or another factor produced it.
66.1% total turnout
59.0% total turnout
58.7% total turnout
58.5% total turnout
55.9% total turnout
68.9% total turnout
70.7% total turnout
75.7% total turnout
63.5% total turnout
66.4% total turnout
71.9% total turnout
73.9% total turnout
73.4% total turnout
71.4% total turnout
75.0% total turnout
Receipt
Advance share runs from 35.7% to 54.2% across the fifteen zones.
- Source
- Elections Canada, 45th general election
- Published by
- Elections Canada
- Period
- 28 April 2025
- Retrieved
- 15 August 2026
Advance zones, not polling divisions, are the stable grain. A by-election can renumber polling divisions; zones survive. Merged and void polls carry notes, and receiver polls read slightly high.
A project-derived address proxy
Recorded street addresses
per implied unit door
Zone 603 has 4,948 electors and 143 rows labelled L/LE street addresses in the working extract. The ratio divides that count by unit doors implied from electors ÷ 1.9. It does not classify the zone’s buildings or access conditions.
Receipt
The working file labels L/LE rows as street addresses and S/SE rows as structure entrances. Implied unit doors divide electors by 1.9. Zone 606 is the other end at 0.88.
- Source
- East-end advance-zone address and canvass proxy
- Published by
- uniteTOlove, derived working files
- Period
- Built for the 2025 federal advance-zone geography
- Retrieved
- 23 August 2026
- File
- src/data/raw/bey_door_counts.csv, src/data/raw/bey_coverage.csv
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
A project-derived planning proxy, not an Elections Canada measure or a housing census. Street addresses are rows labelled parcel classes L/LE in the working extract; the upstream address-point query and its retrieval metadata are not registered here. Implied unit doors divide electors by 1.9, and workload divides those implied doors by 25 doors per pair-hour. Both are explicit assumptions, not observed household size or canvassing speed. The ratio cannot identify building type, lobby access, resident motivation, or cause.
The upstream address-point query and retrieval metadata are not registered. This proxy is published to test a hypothesis, not as a verified building or access classification.
The cautious question
Does the address proxy
track turnout?
Loosely, with exceptions. Zones with lower project-derived street-address ratios tend to sit at lower turnout across these two ridings. The upstream address query is not registered, and the plot controls for nothing, so this is a hypothesis-generating tendency rather than an explanation.
Scarborough Southwest has 13 zones and a 19.0 point spread. Beaches—East York has 15 and a 19.8 point spread. The same door structure produces different turnout in the two ridings, which is the part a door-counting story cannot explain on its own.
Receipt
Project-derived address ratios joined to election-day-plus-advance turnout on riding and zone. 28 of the 28 proxy rows have a matching turnout figure.
- Source
- Elections Canada, 45th general election
- Published by
- Elections Canada
- Period
- 28 April 2025
- Retrieved
- 15 August 2026
- Source
- East-end advance-zone address and canvass proxy
- Published by
- uniteTOlove, derived working files
- Period
- Built for the 2025 federal advance-zone geography
- Retrieved
- 23 August 2026
- File
- src/data/raw/bey_door_counts.csv, src/data/raw/bey_coverage.csv
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
Advance zones, not polling divisions, are the stable grain. A by-election can renumber polling divisions; zones survive. Merged and void polls carry notes, and receiver polls read slightly high.
A project-derived planning proxy, not an Elections Canada measure or a housing census. Street addresses are rows labelled parcel classes L/LE in the working extract; the upstream address-point query and its retrieval metadata are not registered here. Implied unit doors divide electors by 1.9, and workload divides those implied doors by 25 doors per pair-hour. Both are explicit assumptions, not observed household size or canvassing speed. The ratio cannot identify building type, lobby access, resident motivation, or cause.
A scatter of 28 points can show a tendency. It cannot establish a cause; nothing here controls for income, age, tenure, mobility, language, campaign activity, or errors in the address proxy.
2021 against 2025
Four years
didn’t close it
Election-day turnout riding-wide moved +1.0 pp, from 35.8% to 36.8%. Underneath that flat line, neighbourhoods moved in both directions.
Receipt
10 neighbourhoods have a comparable figure in both years. South Riverdale has 2021 only and Birchcliffe-Cliffside has 2025 only, so neither appears in the change chart.
- Source
- Elections Canada, 44th general election
- Published by
- Elections Canada
- Period
- 20 September 2021
- Retrieved
- 15 August 2026
- Source
- Elections Canada, 45th general election
- Published by
- Elections Canada
- Period
- 28 April 2025
- Retrieved
- 15 August 2026
2021 used the 2013 representation order and 2025 uses the 2023 order. Neighbourhood is the comparable unit; polling-division numbers are not comparable across the two years.
Advance zones, not polling divisions, are the stable grain. A by-election can renumber polling divisions; zones survive. Merged and void polls carry notes, and receiver polls read slightly high.
2021 = FED 35007 (2013 RO), 2025 = FED 35007 (2023 RO). 2021 PDs joined via 2021 EC boundaries -- neighbourhood grain is the comparable unit, PD numbers are not. E-day only, both years; merged polls: fold. 2021 electors 1,287 = 101% of 2025's 1,272.
A planning scenario, not an observed canvass
1,777 assumed two-hour shifts
The coverage file divides electors by 1.9, then divides implied doors by twenty-five per pair-hour. Across both ridings that arithmetic totals 1,777 two-hour shifts. Neither household size nor field speed was observed in these files.
Receipt
Estimated unit doors divide electors by 1.9. Pair-hours then divide those implied doors by twenty-five, and two-hour shifts divide pair-hours by two.
- Source
- East-end advance-zone address and canvass proxy
- Published by
- uniteTOlove, derived working files
- Period
- Built for the 2025 federal advance-zone geography
- Retrieved
- 23 August 2026
- File
- src/data/raw/bey_door_counts.csv, src/data/raw/bey_coverage.csv
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
A project-derived planning proxy, not an Elections Canada measure or a housing census. Street addresses are rows labelled parcel classes L/LE in the working extract; the upstream address-point query and its retrieval metadata are not registered here. Implied unit doors divide electors by 1.9, and workload divides those implied doors by 25 doors per pair-hour. Both are explicit assumptions, not observed household size or canvassing speed. The ratio cannot identify building type, lobby access, resident motivation, or cause.
These are scenario assumptions. The files do not record observed household size, field speed, building access, travel time, or completed canvassing.
Every row
The whole file
Sort it, filter it, check it. This is the same data every chart above is drawn from.
| Zone | Electors | Election day | Advance | Total votes | Turnout | Advance share | Main neighbourhoods |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 608 | 5,910 | 1,952 | 1,350 | 3,302 | 55.9% | 40.9% | East End-Danforth (14); Taylor-Massey (1) |
| 603 | 4,948 | 1,718 | 1,178 | 2,896 | 58.5% | 40.7% | Taylor-Massey (12) |
| 602 | 5,178 | 1,924 | 1,114 | 3,038 | 58.7% | 36.7% | O'Connor-Parkview (11); Taylor-Massey (2) |
| 600 | 4,973 | 1,861 | 1,072 | 2,933 | 59.0% | 36.5% | O'Connor-Parkview (8); Victoria Village (3) |
| 604 | 5,704 | 1,932 | 1,691 | 3,623 | 63.5% | 46.7% | Taylor-Massey (7); Woodbine-Lumsden (5); East End-Danforth (2) |
| 610 | 5,679 | 2,414 | 1,340 | 3,754 | 66.1% | 35.7% | East End-Danforth (16) |
| 605 | 5,774 | 2,043 | 1,789 | 3,832 | 66.4% | 46.7% | Woodbine-Lumsden (6); Danforth East York (4); Old East York (2); Taylor-Massey (1) |
| 601 | 5,017 | 1,937 | 1,519 | 3,456 | 68.9% | 44.0% | O'Connor-Parkview (12); Old East York (1) |
| 607 | 5,392 | 2,136 | 1,678 | 3,814 | 70.7% | 44.0% | Woodbine Corridor (8); East End-Danforth (4); Danforth (1) |
| 614 | 4,992 | 1,724 | 1,842 | 3,566 | 71.4% | 51.7% | The Beaches (10); Birchcliffe-Cliffside (1) |
| 611 | 5,771 | 2,175 | 1,977 | 4,152 | 71.9% | 47.6% | Woodbine Corridor (11); The Beaches (1) |
| 612 | 5,539 | 1,995 | 2,073 | 4,068 | 73.4% | 51.0% | The Beaches (10); Woodbine Corridor (2) |
| 606 | 5,833 | 2,189 | 2,122 | 4,311 | 73.9% | 49.2% | Danforth East York (7); Woodbine-Lumsden (3); Danforth (3) |
| 613 | 5,229 | 1,796 | 2,128 | 3,924 | 75.0% | 54.2% | The Beaches (12) |
| 609 | 5,393 | 2,229 | 1,855 | 4,084 | 75.7% | 45.4% | East End-Danforth (9); The Beaches (4) |